Calculation of the number of stem cells which could contain a certain number of mutations occurring either randomly throughout the genome, or restricted to cancer-associated genes, based upon the spontaneous mutation rate

Range Table - link
Organism Human Homo sapiens
Reference Jackson AL, Loeb LA. The mutation rate and cancer. Genetics. 1998 Apr148(4):1483-90. p.1484 table 1PubMed ID9560368
Method See note beneath table
Comments P.1484 left column bottom paragraph: "Based on a Poisson probability distribution in which mutations are independent events, the average stem cell would accumulate 1 to 2 mutations. As many as 2×10^6 cells could contain as many as 6 mutations, and a few cells (3) could contain as many as 12 mutations (Table 1). If each of the cells with multiple mutations were able to proliferate continuously and form a tumor, then spontaneous mutation rates could account for the 6 to 10 events (mutations) that are predicted to be rate-limiting for tumor formation, based on the increase of cancer incidence with age (Armitage and Doll 1954). In this analysis [investigators] assume that any mutation in any gene is on the pathway toward malignancy, that any stem cell has the potential to become a tumor, and that each of the mutations are rate-limiting for the development of a malignancy. If [they] restrict the analysis to mutations in cancer-associated genes, then the spontaneous mutation rate can account for as many as 8×10^3 stem cells containing as many as 2 mutations, and only a few cells (5) containing as many as 3 mutations."
Entered by Uri M
ID 112664