Filamentous cyanobacteria often dominate benthic microbial communities of antarctic lakes and usually exhibit saturation of photosynthesis at light intensities approximately 100 microEinst m-2 s-1. Incident light regimes are controlled by ice and snow accumulations overlaying water columns during much of the year. Thus, light availability to microbial mats is often below saturation intensity and is strongly influenced by modest changes in climatic factors. A model of net primary production for benthic mat communities of the subantarctic Sombre Lake, Signy Island, was developed (1) to evaluate depth-specific productivities of mat communities, (2) to test the relative importances of model parameters to mat production, and (3) to explore the potential impacts of climate change on mat production as manifested through changes in light regime. Simulated rates of net primary production corresponded to observations on a daily basis (approximately 1-4 micrograms C fixed mg-1 ash-free DW of mat d-1) but were an order of magnitude lower than estimates of net annual production based on field measurements (< or = 3 vs. 11-45 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively). Close examination suggested that the simulated values were more plausible. A detailed sensitivity analysis of model behavior revealed that variations in the time of ice and snow melt in spring accounted for 40-60% of the total variation in model behavior, emphasizing the importance of climatic factors to net primary production of mat communities and the sensitivity of mat production to climate change.